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Trends in Financial Markets: Insights from the January 2nd, 2022 Report

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Financial Weatherman Weather Map

We’re going to start this week on the Trends in Financial Markets weather map, if you will, with a 15-year chart of inflation. Now this is the commodity index; that’s the low of 2008, and you can see commodities went up nearly two times from that point. That was the depths of despair when everybody sold stocks and went the wrong way pretty much. Then you had a huge increase in commodity prices. Everybody was worried about inflation in 2011 because of the Fed balance sheet, which I’m about to show you. Well, instead of inflation, we made more of the commodities and we saw deflation or disinflation during this period right here.

Trends in Financial Markets

Recent Inflation Trends

Look right here—that’s why everybody’s Trends in Financial Markets about inflation. It’s called a recovery, and I’m going to shed some light on what the Fed is doing, especially with their recent meeting. Now this is the overall inflation rate: boom, 6.8 percent is the highest in 40 years. Supply disruptions, and we’re going to get to that as well as what does inflation mean at 6.8 percent? You would expect bond yields to soar and bond values to go down—not so fast as we go through this presentation.

Federal Reserve Balance Sheet

And we’re about to see the Federal Reserve balance sheet.Trends in Financial Markets this is the amount of printed money that the Fed puts into the system—lubrication, we could call it. They were below a trillion, arguably way too tight back in 2008. Well, the crash happened; real estate, actually the entire real estate industry and banking industry were essentially bankrupt at that point. They printed lots of money and took the balance sheet all the way up to, notice they kept printing money through 2013-2014. They leveled it out, and that was about 4.7 trillion at the peak of electronically printed currency. Key concept here: now they’ve gone to 8.7 trillion. They were screaming inflation back in 2011, and the Fed actually ended up printing more money, but inflation went down.

Market Responses

Now what does it mean for the financial markets at this point? The Fed is going to stop printing money in 2022. There’s part of your update, and the financial markets actually responded in a fairly benign way when they made that announcement here in December. So let’s go to the next one—S&P 500 index. There is the low of 666, ironically back in 2009. It was March 9th of 2009. I printed a list of 20 companies we believe won’t die because nobody wanted to buy stocks at that point. The stock market did not recover to new highs until the end of 2012. Wow, that’s a key point: 12 years of zero return on the index, on the index value, except for the yield of about one or two percent.

Market Trends and Future Outlook

Then you have this explosion. Look at this explosion that’s happened since the pandemic last year. When we look at these, we say, “Wow, what’s the trend?” Well, you can have long periods of a flat market. How are you going to succeed? It’s called interest and dividends because you still own great assets. If you go through 2000 all the way to 2012 with no appreciation and several downdrafts, how do you benefit? We cover that in the program at networthradio.com, and we get into much more detail about how to upgrade your financial plan. Go to networthradio.com, fill out the preliminary client questionnaire, and yes, if you’re already a client, we would love to Zoom or have you in the office to upgrade your plan again for the next decade.

The Technology and Innovation Landscape

Are we going to get this kind of appreciation again? We don’t see it very often. In 35 years of doing this, you don’t see it very often. This is technology and innovation. Back in 2000, the NASDAQ 100 fell by almost 90 percent. It was technology that was the rage in 1999, and here you see the low and an extraordinary high of almost 15 times what the low was back there. Well, we started to correct again here at the end of the year. What does it mean? Multiple contraction. The Federal Reserve said, “We’re going to raise interest rates; we’re going to stop printing money,” and that says multiples will come down. When you buy stuff that is at seven times earnings, like some of the medical dividends, you’re actually protecting yourself from the next correction.

Financial Innovation and Speculation

Now here is financial innovation: purpose acquisition companies. That’s a way for a company to go public. Somebody raises 500 million dollars, for example, and says, “We’re going to buy a great company and take it public like that.” They’re coming public too soon, and look at this financial frenzy. Almost 500 companies IPO’d as a special purpose acquisition company. What does it mean? It means that companies can go public much easier and many of them way too soon. I’ll cite electric vehicles as a speculative bubble. When the Fed starts to tighten, speculative bubbles, like cryptocurrency and potentially some of the electric vehicle companies, actually contract big time—that’s a warning.

Energy Market Insights

By the way, this is West Texas Intermediate crude. The high in 2008 before the collapse was 147 dollars a barrel. Wow! Inflation adjusted, that would be 200 dollars a barrel at some point if it was inflation adjusted for a super cycle. This arguably looks like the beginning of a super cycle. What happens during that time? Well, energy companies make a lot of money, but they’re paying the highest dividend rates in the S&P 500 right now. Solar—we are BTU agnostic. We don’t care so much about traditional energy versus clean technology; we’d like clean technology better, of course. But what’s happened to solar prices? You can put a solar roof on your house with a battery wall, and boom, what do you get? Low-cost energy and clean technology. Wow!

Cryptocurrency Market Trends

What does that mean? Lots of batteries—there is a battery gold rush, especially with the infrastructure package. This is good news for the solar industry and, of course, for the planet and climate change. Here we go with Bitcoin. What about cryptocurrency? The peak value was 2.6 trillion, okay? 2.6 trillion right here at 69,000 on Bitcoin. It represents, by the way, about half of the cryptocurrency market, so they tend to move together; they’re correlated just like stocks. Well, don’t forget this: In 2017, Bitcoin reached 20,000 a coin. In the pandemic, when you wanted your money the most to buy bargains or at least have some cash, Bitcoin had declined below 4,000—an 80% decline from that peak. Wow, that is a bad two and a half years.

Conclusion

So, don’t assume that it always goes up because you could lose 80 percent over a period of two and a half years based on this. Now we look at this—whoa! What happened here? There is a problem in the cryptocurrency market, and we cover it at networthradio.com in the New Year’s program. We cover it in more detail. So 2022: medical dividends, energy infrastructure, global high yield—yes, well managed and tactical safety. Those are the four things we’re building into each and every investment plan at McGowan Group Asset Management.

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The One Financial Move That Can Change Everything: Build an Emergency Fund

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Why an Emergency Fund Matters

If you want to worry less about your finances, build wealth, and avoid debt, it all starts with an Build an Emergency Fund. One of the lowest financial points anyone can experience is being unable to cover an unexpected expense—like a car repair—due to lack of savings. These situations are often a result of not planning ahead or failing to budget properly.

The Reality of Financial Ups and Downs

Even in months of high earnings, Build an Emergency Fund peace of mind comes from knowing that there’s a financial cushion to fall back on during low-income periods. An emergency fund is crucial for covering unexpected expenses like a broken boiler, roof repair, or job loss. Sometimes, more than one emergency can occur at once, making financial stress even more difficult if you’re living paycheck to paycheck.

The Cost of Ignoring It: Debt Trap

Without an emergency fund, a single unexpected cost can force you into debt. Add another emergency  fund on top of that, and you could fall deeper into the cycle. Paying off debt, especially with high interest rates, only makes things harder. It’s a vicious cycle that holds you back financially—but there’s a way out.

Why Emergency Funds Come Before Investments

Investing may seem more exciting, especially with social media trends encouraging immediate wealth building. But financial experts typically advise having an emergency fund before investing. Investments work best over time, and markets can have ups and downs. You don’t want to be forced to pull money out of your investments during a downturn just to cover an emergency. That’s why emergency funds are vital—they protect your investments by covering unexpected costs.

How Much Should Be in an Build an Emergency Fund?

Most financial experts recommend setting aside 3 to 6 months of essential expenses. For example, if your monthly essentials cost £2,500, you’ll want about £7,500 in your emergency fund. While that may seem like a lot, especially given that the average savings in the UK is only around $1,000, it’s important to remember that these figures vary. Nearly half of people have £1,000 or less in savings, so if you’re above that, you’re already ahead.

Adjusting Based on Your Lifestyle Build an Emergency Fund

This isn’t a one-size-fits-all approach. If your lifestyle is frugal, your car is reliable, and your housing costs are low, you might not need as large a fund. It helps to identify your own worst-case scenario—like losing your job—and base your fund size around that. Start small: aim for £1,000, then one month of expenses, and build from there.

When to Stop Contributing to the Build an Emergency Fund

There will come a point when your emergency fund is “full.” Keeping £100,000 in a low-interest savings account doesn’t make sense if you’re neglecting pensions or investments. Balance is key.


How to Build Your Emergency Fund

1. Break It Down into Steps Build an Emergency Fund

Set a target and timeframe. For example, to save £7,500 over 24 months, you’d need to save about £310 each month. If that’s not possible, start smaller but stay consistent.

2. Automate Your Savings Build an Emergency Fund

Make saving automatic. Set up a direct debit so the money goes into your emergency fund as soon as your income hits your account. Make it a non-negotiable part of your budget.

Important Note: If you have high-interest debt, like credit card debt, focus on paying that off first. No savings interest will outweigh the cost of that kind of debt.

3. Use Savings Challenges or Micro-Savings Apps

Savings challenges like the Penny Challenge or 100 Envelope Challenge can be fun ways to build savings gradually. Micro-savings apps (e.g., Plum) or banking app features that round up transactions and set the difference aside are also helpful tools to boost savings effortlessly.

Build an Emergency Fund


Where to Keep Your Emergency Fund

Accessibility is Key Build an Emergency Fund

Your emergency fund needs to be easy to access. Avoid stashing it in accounts with withdrawal penalties or low interest. Look for an easy-access saver account that allows multiple withdrawals if needed and offers the best interest rate possible.

Consider Tiered Saving Accounts Build an Emergency Fund

If you have a larger fund—say over £5,000—you might want to split it: keep some in a very accessible account (even if interest is lower) and the rest in an account with better interest but limited withdrawals. Shop around for the best deals and be open to moving your money.


Build an Emergency Fund: The Foundation of Wealth Building

An emergency fund helps avoid debt and stress, but it’s your long-term savings, pensions, and investments that truly build wealth. Think of the emergency fund as your financial foundation. It protects your future gains and helps keep your financial goals on track.

Even if you can only invest £50 a month, over 20 years with a 6% return, you could end up with around £22,000. And it’s your emergency fund that ensures you can consistently save or invest that £50, no matter what life throws your way.

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Emergency Fund Calculation: How Much Should You Really Save?

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The easiest way to Emergency Fund Calculation is to not calculate at all and to rely on a couple of data points. The rule of thumb for emergencies is that you should have 3 to eight months of expenses saved away in an emergency fund. But where did we get here, and why have we been regurgitating that same advice for years? Many financial experts have repeated this advice, but it’s worth questioning its origins and whether it still applies today. For many years, we’ve heard that you need a large emergency fund, but it took some critical thinking to figure out where this information came from and whether it’s still relevant.


What Is an Emergency Fund?

An Emergency Fund Calculation is cash that you have in a savings account, preferably a high-yield savings account, that you can tap into in the event of an emergency. This is a crucial piece of financial security and stability because the idea is that if you have cash on hand and you have an emergency, you can pull that money out of the emergency fund. It prevents you from going into a deeper financial hole if you had no money in a savings account and had to rely on high-interest credit cards, personal loans, or borrowing from others.

The Purpose of an Emergency Fund Calculation

The idea is that an emergency fund provides both literal and emotional peace of mind, offering a financial safety net.


New Research on Emergency Fund Calculation Amounts

Some researchers, Jorge Saat and Emily Gallagher, have crunched the data to determine how much money people should be saving for emergencies. They found that the traditional advice of having 3 to 6 months of income set aside isn’t supported by data. Instead, they looked at lower-income individuals who are more likely to need an emergency fund and don’t have access to other resources.

What the Research Found Emergency Fund Calculation

Their research found that the amount needed to prevent an emergency from becoming a financial disaster is not as high as 3 to 6 months of expenses. In 2019, they found that $2,467 was the amount needed to prevent an emergency from turning into financial hardship. Additionally, once you hit $500 saved, each additional dollar you save increases the likelihood that you won’t fall into financial hardship in an emergency.


What This Means for You

This research gives us a more data-backed approach to saving for emergencies. Rather than aiming for 3 to 6 months of expenses, we now have a better benchmark to start with. Instead of thinking you need to save an overwhelming amount, you can aim for a more achievable starting goal.

Setting Realistic Emergency Fund Calculation Goals

In 2020, about a quarter of Americans had less than $400 available in case of an emergency. Therefore, setting a goal of $400 for your emergency fund is a good starting point. After reaching $400, you can work on building up to $1,000. This is more of a mental goal than anything rooted in data, but for many people, seeing four digits in their bank account helps them feel secure.

Inflation-Adjusted Amounts Emergency Fund Calculation

Once you’ve saved $1,000, it’s time to move toward the inflation-adjusted amount found in the research. The study was conducted in 2019, but considering inflation, the amount now is $2,970. This is a more realistic number to aim for in today’s financial landscape.


Building Your Emergency Fund Calculation in Tiers

After reaching these early benchmarks, it’s important to adjust the amount to match your personal situation. For example, if you look at your last three months of spending, you’ll get a better idea of what your real expenses are. From there, you can calculate the amount needed for a one-month emergency fund based on your essentials like rent, transportation, food, and medicine.

Calculating Your One-Month Emergency Fund Calculation

This amount could range from $3,000 to $10,000, depending on your circumstances.
Emergency Fund Calculation


Quick Reminders About Emergency Funds

Purpose and Use of Emergency Fund Calculation

A couple of quick reminders about emergencies: They are meant to be used in the event of an emergency and not for discretionary purchases like designer sales or a weekend getaway. Your emergency fund should be kept in a readily accessible place, ideally in an FDIC-insured high-yield savings account.

Where to Keep Your Emergency Fund Calculation

While checking accounts offer minimal interest, high-yield savings accounts currently offer interest rates between 4% and 5%, which means your money will grow even as you keep it accessible for emergencies. This emergency fund is not meant to be invested or used for long-term goals. It’s simply there to provide peace of mind and security in the event of a financial emergency.

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Analysis of Nvidia Stock Price Chart: Trends and Insights

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nvidia stock price chart

Introduction to Nvidia and Its Market Position

Nvidia Corporation, founded in 1993, has become a significant player in the semiconductor industry, particularly noted for its pioneering work in graphics processing units (GPUs). Originally targeting the nvidia stock price chart gaming market, Nvidia has expanded its innovations into various sectors, including artificial intelligence (AI), data centers, and automotive technology. Over the years, Nvidia has evolved from a focused graphics company to a diversified technology leader, driving advancements in parallel computing and deep learning, among other areas.

Historically, Nvidia’s stock performance has mirrored Nvidia stock price chart its substantial business achievements and technological breakthroughs. The company went public in 1999, and its stock price has seen remarkable growth, especially in the past decade. Key milestones, such as the introduction of the CUDA programming model and advancements in ray tracing technology, have solidified Nvidia’s dominance in the GPU market. The company’s strategic investments in AI technologies have further positioned it as a key resource in the evolving tech landscape, impacting sectors that range from gaming to complex scientific research.

Nvidia’s innovative trajectory is underscored by notable collaborations and acquisitions, which have expanded its capabilities and market reach. The acquisition of Mellanox Technologies in 2020, for instance, enhanced Nvidia’s data center business and allowed it to broaden its portfolio of high-performance computing solutions. This decisive move illustrates the company’s commitment to steering its growth through technology alignment and market demand. As a result, Nvidia continues to capture significant market share, resulting in impressive financial performance and positioning within the semiconductor ecosystem.

This overview sets the context for a deeper analysis of Nvidia’s stock price chart, where we will explore the trends and insights that have influenced its market valuation over the years.

Understanding the Nvidia stock price chart: Key Metrics and Indicators

The analysis of Nvidia’s stock price chart is essential for investors seeking to make informed decisions. Several key metrics and indicators can provide valuable insights. Firstly, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is a critical metric. This ratio helps investors understand the valuation of Nvidia’s stock relative to its earnings. A higher P/E may indicate that the stock is overvalued, or alternatively, it may reflect strong market confidence in future growth.

Another important element is the market capitalization, which provides a comprehensive view of Nvidia’s total value as a publicly traded entity. By multiplying the current stock price by the total number of outstanding shares, market capitalization facilitates comparison with competitors and identifies Nvidia’s position within the technology sector.

Moreover, trading volume is a crucial indicator that shows the number of shares traded within a specific timeframe. Increased trading volume often signals heightened investor interest, which can impact stock price movements. For instance, abnormal spikes in trading volume may indicate that significant news has prompted a re-evaluation of the stock, making it a notable point of analysis.

In addition to fundamental metrics, technical indicators play a significant role in stock analysis. The moving averages smooth out price data over a specific period, thereby helping to identify trends. A common strategy involves observing the crossover of short-term and long-term moving averages to signal potential buy or sell opportunities.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is another technical indicator that measures the speed and change of price movements, typically ranging from 0 to 100. An RSI above 70 suggests that the stock may be overbought, whereas an RSI below 30 indicates it may be oversold, giving investors insight into potential entry or exit points. Lastly, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) helps determine momentum and trend direction, offering further guidance on possible trading actions.

Historical Trends in Nvidia stock price chart: A Detailed Analysis

Nvidia Corporation, a leader in graphical processing units (GPUs) and artificial intelligence technology, has undergone significant fluctuations in its stock price since its initial public offering in 1999. Analyzing the historical trends of Nvidia’s stock reveals the influence of various factors, including product innovations, earning performance, and broader market dynamics.

In the early years, Nvidia’s stock price was relatively stable, with modest gains resulting from steady product releases aimed at both consumers and professionals. However, a notable transformation occurred in the mid-2010s when demand surged due to the rise of gaming and cryptocurrency mining. This phenomenon contributed to a sharp increase in Nvidia’s stock as the company capitalized on its industry-leading technology, leading to a peak market valuation.

Key product launches have played a critical role in shaping the stock price trajectory. The introduction of the Pascal architecture in 2016 marked a milestone, significantly enhancing performance and driving sales across various segments. Subsequent releases, like the Turing architecture, captured market attention, further propelling stock prices. Additionally, Nvidia’s strategic moves into artificial intelligence and data centers have highlighted its adaptability and potential for long-term growth, positively influencing investor sentiment.

Earnings reports have also been crucial in affecting Nvidia’s stock trends, often resulting in volatility. For instance, in Q2 2021, robust earnings and optimistic guidance led to an unprecedented spike in stock prices. Conversely, unexpected results or cautious forecasts can lead to rapid declines. Furthermore, external factors, such as shifts in market sentiment and economic conditions, have driven fluctuations, illustrating the stock’s volatility.

Overall, Nvidia’s stock history presents a compelling case study of how innovation, market trends, and external factors converge to drive performance, underscoring the importance of comprehensive analysis for investors looking to engage with this dynamic stock.

Future Outlook for Nvidia’s Stock: Analyst Predictions and Market Sentiment

The future outlook for Nvidia’s stock appears to be influenced by multiple factors, including technological advancements, competitive pressures, and macroeconomic conditions. Analysts have been bullish on Nvidia’s capacity to harness growth in areas such as artificial intelligence (AI) and gaming, which are pivotal to its growth strategy. With AI applications gaining traction across industries, Nvidia’s GPUs play a critical role, propelling expectations for expansive revenue streams. According to several analysts, this strong growth avenue could significantly bolster Nvidia’s stock price in the coming quarters.

nvidia stock price chart

Moreover, advancements in gaming technology, particularly with the emergence of next-generation consoles and graphics performance enhancements, position Nvidia as a leading player in this segment. The company’s commitment to innovation and its continued development of cutting-edge graphics cards could resonate positively with investors, reinforcing confidence in the stock’s potential. Analysts forecast a favorable trajectory if Nvidia maintains its competitive edge and expands its market share in the gaming industry.

However, potential challenges exist that could affect stock performance. Increased competition from companies like AMD and Intel presents a dynamic environment that may pressure Nvidia’s pricing strategies, potentially affecting margins. Additionally, the volatility surrounding semiconductor supply chains and geopolitical tensions adds a layer of uncertainty that analysts are closely monitoring. Recent headlines regarding tech regulations and trade relations can also cultivate caution among investors.

Market sentiment has shown resilience, with investors largely optimistic about Nvidia’s future proving evident from recent trading patterns. Overall, while the outlook for Nvidia’s stock remains promising with robust opportunities in AI and gaming, stakeholders should stay vigilant regarding market dynamics and competitive factors that might influence performance. As both analysts’ predictions and market sentiment evolve, a comprehensive analysis is essential for those evaluating Nvidia’s stock potential moving forward.

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